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13 Oct · 19:10 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MAMariusz Adamus
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1501
3-1Final setsAdamus won
PGPawel Gasiorski
🇵🇱Pawel Gasiorski
ELO 1734
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Gasiorski at 76%. The actual result was Mariusz Adamus 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Pawel Gasiorski favoured — closing 1.15
Upset
Total 69.5
87 points played
Over
Set handicap
Pawel Gasiorski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Pawel Gasiorski −9.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
12.5
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Adamus is favoured to win, below means Pawel Gasiorski.

▲ Mariusz Adamuspre 25% → final 51%
Pawel Gasiorski ▼
Biggest swing 40 ptsAdamus recovered from 14%72 points · 4 games