14 Oct · 00:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1286
FormWWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1339
FormLLWLW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H37-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-36)