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14 Oct · 00:45 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MAMariusz Adamus
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1501
3-1Final setsAdamus won
SKSebastian Krupa
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1547
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Krupa at 56%. The actual result was Mariusz Adamus 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Sebastian Krupa favoured — closing 1.47
Upset
Total 75.5
81 points played
Over
Set handicap
Sebastian Krupa −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Sebastian Krupa −4.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
5.6
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Adamus is favoured to win, below means Sebastian Krupa.

▲ Mariusz Adamuspre 47% → final 88%
Sebastian Krupa ▼
Biggest swing 59 ptsAdamus recovered from 35%72 points · 4 games