14 Oct · 05:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kwapis
ELO 1646
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Malachowski
MM
🇵🇱Michal Malachowski
ELO 1676
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Malachowski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (86)
Fair odds · Malachowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H14-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.