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14 Oct · 04:00 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MMMaksymilian Miastowski
🇵🇱Maksymilian Miastowski
ELO 1793
3-2Final setsMiastowski won
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1633
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Miastowski at 66%. The actual result was Maksymilian Miastowski 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Maksymilian Miastowski favoured — closing 1.35
Favourite won
Set handicap
Maksymilian Miastowski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Maksymilian Miastowski −6.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.35
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Maksymilian Miastowski is favoured to win, below means Grzegorz Poliniewicz.

▲ Maksymilian Miastowskipre 64% → final 99%
Grzegorz Poliniewicz ▼
Biggest swing 81 ptsMiastowski recovered from 18%72 points · 5 games