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14 Oct · 06:25 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1617
3-1Final setsTkaczyk won
PKPawel Kurek
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1490
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Tkaczyk at 63%. The actual result was Henryk Tkaczyk 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Henryk Tkaczyk favoured — closing 1.6
Favourite won
Total 74.5
63 points played
Under
Set handicap
Henryk Tkaczyk −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Henryk Tkaczyk −3.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
3.4
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Henryk Tkaczyk is favoured to win, below means Pawel Kurek.

▲ Henryk Tkaczykpre 61% → final 95%
Pawel Kurek ▼
Biggest swing 36 pts61 points · 4 games