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14 Oct · 19:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1350
2-3Final setsZwolinski won
MZMariusz Zwolinski
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1314
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kowalczyk at 53%. The actual result was Mariusz Zwolinski 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.55
Upset
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −4.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 2-3 at close
4.7
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marcin Kowalczyk is favoured to win, below means Mariusz Zwolinski.

▲ Marcin Kowalczykpre 57% → final 24%
Mariusz Zwolinski ▼
Biggest swing 64 ptsZwolinski recovered from 34%72 points · 5 games