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14 Oct · 21:05 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MZMariusz Zwolinski
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1314
1-3Final setsKowalczyk won
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1350
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kowalczyk at 52%. The actual result was Marcin Kowalczyk 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.55
Favourite won
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −4.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Zwolinski is favoured to win, below means Marcin Kowalczyk.

▲ Mariusz Zwolinskipre 44% → final 77%
Marcin Kowalczyk ▼
Biggest swing 63 ptsZwolinski recovered from 35%72 points · 5 games