15 Oct · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1299
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1319
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 72% (32)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H21-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.