15 Oct · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AB
🇵🇱Adrian Burkacki
ELO 1429
FormLLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1503
FormWWWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)