15 Oct · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1351
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Warpas
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1335
FormWWLLW
52%
48%
🌟Warpas goes over total as favourite 63% (19)
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H10-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.