15 Oct · 15:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kwapis
ELO 1640
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kwapis
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1623
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kapik🌟Kwapis rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (57)
Fair odds · Kwapis
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.