15 Oct · 19:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1523
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Koczyba
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1513
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H41-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.