15 Oct · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1330
FormWLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Myszewski
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1397
FormLLLLW
43%
57%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 71% (41)
Fair odds · Myszewski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)