15 Oct · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1330
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krukar
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Krukar
ELO 1369
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 71% (41)
Fair odds · Krukar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.