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15 Oct · 20:00 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMariusz Koczyba
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1528
1-3Final setsTkocz won
MTMarek Tkocz
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1604
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Koczyba at 53%. The actual result was Marek Tkocz 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Koczyba favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 73.5
81 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mariusz Koczyba −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mariusz Koczyba −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Koczyba is favoured to win, below means Marek Tkocz.

▲ Mariusz Koczybapre 57% → final 5%
Marek Tkocz ▼
Biggest swing 68 ptsTkocz recovered from 30%72 points · 4 games