15 Oct · 22:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1401
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jurowicz
GJ
🇵🇱Grzegorz Jurowicz
ELO 1431
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Jurowicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.