15 Oct · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1361
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kotwica
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1330
FormWWWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.