15 Oct · 22:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WP
🇵🇱Wojciech Pytlas
ELO 1497
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Juszczyk
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1499
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Juszczyk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 48% · 2.07· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H18-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.