16 Oct · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1554
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rutkowski
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1577
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Rutkowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.