16 Oct · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1502
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1518
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 73% (37)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H20-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.