16 Oct · 06:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1705
FormWWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Nowalinski
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1633
FormLLWWL
58%
42%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as favourite 62% (87)
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H36-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-20)