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16 Oct · 10:05 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MNMaciej Nowalinski
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1705
3-2Final setsNowalinski won
PJPatryk Jendrzejewski
🇵🇱Patryk Jendrzejewski
ELO 1664
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Nowalinski at 53%. The actual result was Maciej Nowalinski 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Patryk Jendrzejewski favoured — closing 1.85
Upset
Total 76.5
96 points played
Over
Set handicap
Patryk Jendrzejewski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Patryk Jendrzejewski −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.6
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Maciej Nowalinski is favoured to win, below means Patryk Jendrzejewski.

▲ Maciej Nowalinskipre 57% → final 11%
Patryk Jendrzejewski ▼
Biggest swing 59 ptsJendrzejewski recovered from 40%69 points · 4 games