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16 Oct · 13:25 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMaciej Kolek
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1668
1-3Final setsCzerwinski won
BCBartosz Czerwinski
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1633
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kolek at 56%. The actual result was Bartosz Czerwinski 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Maciej Kolek favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 75.5
77 points played
Over
Set handicap
Maciej Kolek −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Maciej Kolek −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Maciej Kolek is favoured to win, below means Bartosz Czerwinski.

▲ Maciej Kolekpre 53% → final 9%
Bartosz Czerwinski ▼
Biggest swing 51 ptsCzerwinski recovered from 44%72 points · 4 games