16 Oct · 19:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1585
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krutak
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1562
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Krutak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.