16 Oct · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1291
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Krukar
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Krukar
ELO 1374
FormWWLWW
41%
59%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 72% (32)
Fair odds · Krukar
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+83
H2H1-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)