16 Oct · 23:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1396
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skorski
WG
🇵🇱Wojciech Gronowski
ELO 1368
FormWWWWW
53%
47%
🌟Gronowski covers set handicap as underdog 68% (28)
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.