17 Oct · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SB
🇵🇱Sebastian Baran
ELO 1556
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Marchlewski
MM
🇵🇱Marcin Marchlewski
ELO 1613
FormWWWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Marchlewski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H5-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)