17 Oct · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SB
🇵🇱Sebastian Baran
ELO 1559
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Baran
MK
🇵🇱Milosz Kukawka
ELO 1524
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
🌟Kukawka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (48)
Fair odds · Baran
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.