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17 Oct · 11:25 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1308
3-1Final setsRolak won
DPDawid Poloszczanski
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1241
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Rolak at 56%. The actual result was Jaroslaw Rolak 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Poloszczanski favoured — closing 1.57
Upset
Total 76.5
81 points played
Over
Set handicap
Poloszczanski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Poloszczanski −3.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
5.4
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Jaroslaw Rolak is favoured to win, below means Dawid Poloszczanski.

▲ Jaroslaw Rolakpre 60% → final 99%
Dawid Poloszczanski ▼
Biggest swing 64 ptsRolak recovered from 35%72 points · 4 games