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17 Oct · 13:30 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MMMateusz Misiak
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1403
2-3Final setsPoloszczanski won
DPDawid Poloszczanski
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1255
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Misiak at 68%. The actual result was Dawid Poloszczanski 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mateusz Misiak favoured — closing 1.3
Upset
Total 74.5
110 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mateusz Misiak −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mateusz Misiak −6.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mateusz Misiak is favoured to win, below means Dawid Poloszczanski.

▲ Mateusz Misiakpre 66% → final 92%
Dawid Poloszczanski ▼
Biggest swing 72 ptsMisiak recovered from 21%72 points · 5 games