17 Oct · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KM
🇵🇱Krzysztof Malcher
ELO 1398
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bladziak
KB
🇵🇱Krzysztof Bladziak
ELO 1409
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Bladziak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.