17 Oct · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1348
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Eliasz
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1370
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
🌟Eliasz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 20% (20)
Fair odds · Eliasz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.