18 Oct · 00:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1535
FormLLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Skorupa
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1539
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.