17 Oct · 23:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1283
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Gronowski
WG
🇵🇱Wojciech Gronowski
ELO 1345
FormWWLLL
43%
57%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 72% (32)
Fair odds · Gronowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H10-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-6)