18 Oct · 04:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1293
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1333
FormLWLWL
46%
54%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 72% (32)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H23-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.