18 Oct · 04:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1363
FormWLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Cioch
BC
🇵🇱Blazej Cioch
ELO 1432
FormWLWWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Cioch
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)