18 Oct · 03:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1411
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fira
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1407
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.