18 Oct · 06:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1303
FormWLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sinicki
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1352
FormLWLLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sinicki
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H17-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-8)