18 Oct · 06:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1507
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kesik
GK
🇵🇱Gracjan Kesik
ELO 1519
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🌟Kesik goes over total as favourite 80% (15)
Fair odds · Kesik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.