18 Oct · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1380
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Staniszewski
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1360
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Trela stays under total as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Staniszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 40% · 2.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H15-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.