18 Oct · 23:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1539
FormLWWWL
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Mucha
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1396
FormLLLLW
65%
35%
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~77 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+143
H2H14-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+143)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-6)