18 Oct · 20:30 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1466
FormWWWLW
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Linek
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1369
FormLLWLW
61%
39%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 71% (34)
Fair odds · Linek
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 50% · 1.99· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
22%
1-3
15%
3-2
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+97
H2H43-38
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+97)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-38)