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18 Oct · 11:50 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BWBartlomiej Wisniewski
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1330
3-0Final setsWisniewski won
DPDawid Poloszczanski
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1313
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Wisniewski at 52%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Wisniewski 3-0 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Poloszczanski favoured — closing 1.55
Upset
Total 76.5
47 points played
Under
Set handicap
Poloszczanski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Poloszczanski −3.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-0 at close
9.25
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Wisniewski is favoured to win, below means Dawid Poloszczanski.

▲ Bartlomiej Wisniewskipre 56% → final 51%
Dawid Poloszczanski ▼
Biggest swing 60 ptsWisniewski recovered from 17%72 points · 5 games