18 Oct · 22:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1369
FormLLWLW
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1486
FormLLLWW
37%
63%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 71% (34)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~78 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+117
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)