18 Oct · 19:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1666
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oracz
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1659
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.