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18 Oct · 14:40 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BWBartlomiej Wisniewski
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1330
2-3Final setsNosiadek won
JNJakub Nosiadek
🇵🇱Jakub Nosiadek
ELO 1357
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Nosiadek at 52%. The actual result was Jakub Nosiadek 2-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Wisniewski favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Wisniewski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Wisniewski −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Wisniewski is favoured to win, below means Jakub Nosiadek.

▲ Bartlomiej Wisniewskipre 44% → final 10%
Jakub Nosiadek ▼
Biggest swing 66 ptsNosiadek recovered from 24%72 points · 5 games