18 Oct · 21:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1565
FormWWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Pruszkowski
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1490
FormLWLLW
58%
42%
🌟Urban goes over total as underdog 65% (71)
Fair odds · Pruszkowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+75
H2H79-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (79-36)