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18 Oct · 22:55 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
KSKarol Sulkowski
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1328
3-1Final setsSulkowski won
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1303
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Sulkowski at 50%. The actual result was Karol Sulkowski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mikolaj Lukaszewski favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 75.5
84 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mikolaj Lukaszewski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mikolaj Lukaszewski −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.25
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Karol Sulkowski is favoured to win, below means Mikolaj Lukaszewski.

▲ Karol Sulkowskipre 46% → final 2%
Mikolaj Lukaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 57 ptsLukaszewski recovered from 42%60 points · 3 games