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19 Oct · 08:30 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1653
2-3Final setsKapik won
KKKrzysztof Kapik
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1660
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Poliniewicz at 51%. The actual result was Krzysztof Kapik 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Krzysztof Kapik favoured — closing 1.6
Favourite won
Total 74.5
87 points played
Over
Set handicap
Krzysztof Kapik −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Krzysztof Kapik −3.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Grzegorz Poliniewicz is favoured to win, below means Krzysztof Kapik.

▲ Grzegorz Poliniewiczpre 47% → final 11%
Krzysztof Kapik ▼
Biggest swing 90 ptsKapik recovered from 8%72 points · 5 games